When the San Francisco Giants traded for Rafael Devers, they were able to add a three-time MLB All-Star and a former World Series Champion.
Devers has hit at least 25 home runs in each of his last four seasons and has already hit 15 home runs this season. He does not lack for power, though on his new team in the National League, he could potentially hit even more balls out of the park.
He already ranks in the 97th percentile for hard-hit percentage and 96th percentile for average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant. But advanced metrics say that we should (surprisingly) expect more dingers in San Francisco even though it is a notoriously difficult place to hit.
Last year, in fact, it was the most challenging place to hit a home run in the MLB.
Devers has hit 15 home runs this season, which makes him one of the leaders in the American League.
However, per Baseball Savant, he would have 13 home runs if he played all of his games at Boston’s Fenway Park. Meanwhile, if he had played all of his games at San Francisco’s Oracle Park, that number is 17 home runs.
Further, 11 of his 18 doubles this season would have resulted in home runs at Oracle.
Last year, Devers would have hit 25 home runs if he played all of his games at Fenway. If his games were at Oracle instead, it would have increased to 28 home runs.
Devers hit a career-high 39 home runs in 2021, and that would have hit 42 if all of the games were in San Francisco.
For what it is worth, over the past three years, Statcast’s Park Factors suggests that Fenway is actually the second-easiest place to hit while Oracle is the second-hardest stadium. San Francisco has a pitcher-friendly stadium.
But because Devers’ power goes the other way, he is likely to hit a lot of balls into McCovey Cove on his new team.
